Long Term Forecast Update 1982 1983
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Elliott Wave Principle concluded that the Wave IV bear market in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in December 1974 at 572. The authors labelled the March 1978 low at 740 as the end of Primary wave ② within the new bull market. Neither level was ever broken on a daily or hourly closing basis. That wave labelling still stands, except that the low of wave ② is better placed in March 1980.
The analysis that follows, from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist, details his real-time conclusion that the 1982 low may also be labelled as the end of the wave IV bear market, particularly when taking the “constant-dollar” Dow into account. This text includes The Elliott Wave Theorist’s dramatic market analysis of September 1982. Published one month after the low of a 16½-year downtrend in the inflation-adjusted Dow, it identified the start of the great “liftoff” for Cycle wave V.
This Appendix, which first appeared in the April 1983 edition, has been expanded to include all long-term commentary through the first year of the bull market.
All text that follows is quoted as published in Robert Prechter’s The Elliott Wave Theorist on the dates cited below.
